Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0febfae1214f1a85b6f9a39f4c74523ed5217590eb246857d671d7861b35fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,803$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.96 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,368$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,338$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 1,229$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 35c | 1,162$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.72 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 974.36$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.86 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 778.1$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 722.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 53c | 655.63$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.26 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 18c | 538.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 521.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 521.08$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 508$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 8c | 504.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 20c | 503.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 468.03$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 461.97$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 456.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 46c | 440$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 44c | 424.53$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 423.41$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 42c | 420$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 21c | 409.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 404.36$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 22c | 375.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 339.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 15c | 334.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 10c | 324.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 62c | 320.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 307$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 25c | 299.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 41c | 282.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 40c | 249.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 239.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 238$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 236.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 30c | 221.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 209.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 208.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 39c | 206.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 76c | 202.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 13c | 196.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 189.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 13c | 182.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 45c | 179.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 36c | 178.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 61c | 175.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 170.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 164.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 162.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 153.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 14c | 149.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…c7eabacked No | 62c | 133.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 124.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 122.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 38c | 119.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 117.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 115.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 38c | 107.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…f3e5backed Yes | 70c | 106.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 80c | 101.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 101.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 16c | 100.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 100.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 29c | 97.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 78.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 40c | 75.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 71.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 69.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 45c | 69.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 61c | 69.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 66.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 31c | 64.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 18c | 63.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 61.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 60.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e96…7527backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…db33backed Yes | 28c | 57.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…6f33backed No | 71c | 56.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 29c | 52.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…8983backed Yes | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked Yes | 74c | 49.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 48.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…0bf7backed No | 69c | 46.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9b…7c8fbacked No | 68c | 46.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 80c | 46.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 65c | 45.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.