Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd28ce1d16a70af76393d6d3218994ce2b1dcd920595a64dc18a675037bede173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 47c | 2,799$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.59 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked No | 3c | 1,968$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 1,278$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 15c | 1,234$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 67c | 1,136$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Yes | 52c | 1,011$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 28c | 1,005$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 46c | 869.3$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.47 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 864.08$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 61c | 815.08$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.38 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked No | 68c | 785.19$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 723.35$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 693.54$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 609.95$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 44c | 607.64$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 31c | 600$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.1 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 542.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 501.67$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 76c | 501.37$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 54c | 496.31$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.05 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 491$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.51 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 447.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 426$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 424.41$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 40c | 422.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 50c | 381.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 51c | 360.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 312$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 310.37$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 307.94$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 31c | 305$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 301.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 293.05$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 286.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…b922backed No | 5c | 281.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 49c | 278.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 271.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 6c | 268.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 261.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 248.8$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 31c | 240$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 237.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 227$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 5c | 219$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 210.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 61c | 207.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 64c | 188.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 186.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 31c | 185.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 182.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 58c | 181.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 169.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 30c | 144.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 35c | 143.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 139.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 135.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 132$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 16c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 47c | 128.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 20c | 127.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 57c | 127.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 127.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 46c | 125.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 124$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 24c | 123.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 56c | 121.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 56c | 118.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 47c | 111.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 109.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 109.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 102.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 27c | 100.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 96.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 93.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 92.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 43c | 92.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 85.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 82.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 22c | 81.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 43c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 75c | 77.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 72c | 77.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e96…7527backed Yes | 41c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 40c | 68.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.