Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Ugo Humbert vs Matteo Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9829cc72c30c951e683692554ae89bae1bb2277f002b823eca186f1c61ced513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Humbertof Humbert, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Berrettini | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…3a5bbacked Berrettini | 52c | 4,930$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Berrettini | 53c | 4,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Humbert | 50c | 3,149$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.95 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Humbert | 63c | 2,667$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.45 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Humbert | 48c | 2,063$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063 | 291 | 52.6%153 W · 138 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Berrettini | 53c | 1,883$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Humbert | 63c | 1,869$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.8 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Humbert | 48c | 1,709$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.12 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Humbert | 46c | 1,507$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.56 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Humbert | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Humbert | 59c | 1,260$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.49 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Berrettini | 8c | 1,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Berrettini | 40c | 1,136$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.13 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Humbert | 49c | 1,032$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.23 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Berrettini | 34c | 1,031$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Humbert | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Humbert | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Humbert | 48c | 854$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Humbert | 50c | 719$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Humbert | 52c | 517.44$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Berrettini | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Berrettini | 7c | 458.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Humbert | 49c | 401.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Humbert | 80c | 331.38$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Humbert | 52c | 329.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Berrettini | 48c | 305.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Berrettini | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Berrettini | 54c | 272.13$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Humbert | 52c | 212.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Humbert | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Humbert | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Humbert | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Berrettini | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 325 | 48%156 W · 169 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Berrettini | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Humbert | 50c | 182.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Berrettini | 56c | 178.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Humbert | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Humbert | 52c | 156.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Humbert | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Humbert | 48c | 119.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Berrettini | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Berrettini | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Berrettini | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Humbert | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Humbert | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Humbert | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…aff9backed Humbert | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Humbert | 52c | 54.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Humbert | 48c | 52.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Berrettini | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Berrettini | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Berrettini | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Berrettini | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Berrettini | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…7150backed Humbert | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 165 | 64.8%107 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…4d93backed Humbert | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…a034backed Humbert | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Humbert | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Humbert | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Humbert | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Humbert | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Berrettini | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Humbert | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Humbert | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.