World Politics · resolved market
Kim Moon-soo out as PPP presidential candidate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983f1846012729722a774d56590ab0271ab7f5b0d69794542fa88ae4476d56e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5dff…c07ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed No | 0c | 17,099$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 13c | 12,436$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.72 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ed…db2fbacked No | 0c | 9,811$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 5c | 7,803$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.33 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 5,649$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 5,461$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…69f5backed No | 2c | 4,408$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +235.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…8697backed No | 1c | 3,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 10c | 2,300$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 53c | 1,660$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.38 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 79c | 1,507$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.85 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 15c | 1,473$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.87 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 5c | 1,082$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 72c | 1,010$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.94 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…602cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 2c | 720.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…d6e6backed No | 7c | 613.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 76c | 608.26$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.8 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked No | 68c | 602.35$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 69c | 574.1$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.47 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 548.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Yes | 12c | 487$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 28cpaid | +292.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 15c | 430$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.5 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab55…df2abacked No | 77c | 418.1$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 3c | 309.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…678ebacked Yes | 25c | 299.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 17c | 251$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 238.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…7a1cbacked Yes | 43c | 230.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 126.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed No | 64c | 106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 100.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223c…a928backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +132%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 29c | 96.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f62…d7b0backed No | 54c | 88.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 24c | 78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4601…83b8backed Yes | 18c | 67.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 22cpaid | +377.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 23c | 51.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…7e2cbacked No | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 29.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 54c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…daecbacked Yes | 73c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.