UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9847e82cd889464cf68c89eac3e921b4e9da323020d02f00240de7bbdc8ef619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 71c | 1,569$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.04 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes | 26c | 1,354$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.85 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 75c | 343.2$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Yes | 32c | 307.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…b3e7backed Yes | 32c | 256.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 243.94$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 10c | 213.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…c60bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 75c | 192.08$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 188.53$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 187.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f1…1445backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…3503backed Yes | 23c | 85.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…2497backed Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…9f31backed Yes | 45c | 66.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Yes | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…cf38backed Yes | 37c | 54.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…ccc1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…9d84backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 35.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…53fcbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)Strickland won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.