UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53c65171203b3761c8be7890f1e8b706a4e9a7481ca2f82a6bbe4e969737c9bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 74c | 964.55$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.85 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 22c | 328.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed Yes | 34c | 316.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 19c | 306$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 34c | 300.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 66c | 277.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 65c | 227.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…a8debacked No | 74c | 189.97$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 35c | 100.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac3…f618backed Yes | 35c | 97.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 73c | 87.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 81.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 24c | 75.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 27c | 74.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a60fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…d0e7backed No | 72c | 33.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…2869backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…ccc1backed Yes | 38c | 26.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 60c | 23.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 65c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)Strickland won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.