UFC · resolved market
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7805cb073133331f8cdb50a3e7f5ad45ab863aa9e23218f8081352c1480427d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,208$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed Yes | 13c | 2,300$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed No | 3c | 1,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 14c | 672.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.71 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 13c | 600$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.8 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 18c | 581.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.83 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 13c | 304.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 80c | 269.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…d323backed Yes | 14c | 268.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…670bbacked Yes | 14c | 265.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 263.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +281.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…5c4ebacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…3594backed Yes | 13c | 162.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +379%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…515dbacked Yes | 15c | 152.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +302.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 14c | 144.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…57b8backed Yes | 17c | 138.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +355.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Yes | 18c | 136.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…34f9backed Yes | 14c | 132.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…a49ebacked Yes | 12c | 118.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +754.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…8059backed Yes | 18c | 111.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 18c | 109.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…647cbacked Yes | 13c | 87.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 15c | 77.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)Strickland won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.