UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf782eb5737de46f5ca406725cd665cb1e4d466bf3ff142e10a0708e8d5aa8dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 36c | 1,825$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.9 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 61c | 1,801$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.42 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 56c | 1,298$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.96 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Under | 39c | 1,225$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…23afbacked Over | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 44c | 707$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.92 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 61c | 641$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.01 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 44c | 586.36$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 38c | 537.12$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.01 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…727bbacked Under | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 66c | 457.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Over | 62c | 420$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Over | 57c | 387.42$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 60c | 338.91$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…5222backed Over | 64c | 306.09$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 41c | 284.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.41 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 34c | 265.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.47 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…8fc6backed Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 62c | 244.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 38c | 230.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…f147backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 197.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Over | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Over | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Over | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…a0b7backed Over | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Under | 38c | 94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 37c | 79.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…beb8backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a785backed Under | 39c | 31.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 57c | 25.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…ec88backed Under | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…94babacked Over | 62c | 16.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…51b4backed Over | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 60.4%151 W · 99 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)Strickland won
- Will Anthony Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.