MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x984fbd8734d65fd5eef998f1042014b19277c9d575421f70663a75f2777c7289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 15,839$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 9,195$6,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 6,000$4,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 556.49$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 7c | 371.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…977bbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 322.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 274.52$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 259$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 185.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 103.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 86.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…eb96backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 65.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Chicago Cubs | 28c | 61.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago Cubs | 30c | 33.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…4d9bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 16.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.