MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4bd9c0f2604f1fb8df84fd63a7a778e7fbeb56866b1e917c1a361603929a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 73c | 7,266$5,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.74 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 4,108$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 2,943$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 2,895$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,210$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 1,857$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 16c | 1,040$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.04 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 935.57$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 70c | 931$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 62c | 716$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 34c | 620.35$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.92 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 598.44$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 64c | 404.73$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 40c | 397.62$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 38c | 383$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 63c | 352.32$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 37c | 328.31$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 29c | 315.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Under | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 63c | 240.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Over | 72c | 239.06$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 235.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 66c | 181.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 169.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 28c | 165.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 127.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 62c | 105.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 40c | 104.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 63c | 104.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 43c | 101.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…3d01backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 67c | 96.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 32c | 82.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 40c | 74.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 33c | 63.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 52.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 41c | 50.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 33c | 46.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 40c | 38.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 40c | 27.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 64c | 27.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 72c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 60c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 74c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.