MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0449f42551486766777e4ffd160d3ff8e26b059a6c3410a09e55162e26133a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 19,378$9,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,944.73 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 9,006$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 2c | 2,529$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,761$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.17 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,623$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.65 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 45c | 1,600$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 56c | 1,217$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.31 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 990$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 839.06$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.39 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 657.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.91 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 506.36$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 54c | 498.68$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.85 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 376.3$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 340.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 263.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 60c | 248.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 238$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 49c | 214.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 56c | 204.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…f13abacked Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 61c | 179.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 159.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 64c | 106.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 81.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 57c | 75.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 74.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 63c | 71.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 64.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 64c | 63.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 61.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 55.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 45c | 46.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 46.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 41c | 43.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 61c | 41.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Under | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 40.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 43c | 29.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 66c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 66c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 22.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…b515backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 51c | 19.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 66c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.