MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc2c737663760dc6f0f482dd2aa36dc1fe8bda6044f1f37b34b47e539d08117d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 1,322$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 1,038$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 997.81$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 5c | 791.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 699.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 533$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 356.7$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 307.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 191.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 31.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.