Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9882ad23050ba69df6797d7bdd71109a84603143f09222b1352914bf493b8b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…0225backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,885$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 1,509$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 9c | 1,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,042$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 822.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 6c | 768.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 505.17$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 434.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 422.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 6c | 411.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 57c | 372.35$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 9c | 354.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 353$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9d37backed Yes | 8c | 327.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 314.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 11c | 294.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 17c | 253.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 5c | 249.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 40c | 249.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 219.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 9c | 216.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 185.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Yes | 47c | 169.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 53c | 143.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 48c | 140.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 13c | 120.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 15c | 114.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 16c | 110.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 105.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…63d7backed Yes | 14c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 99.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 72c | 97.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 15c | 89.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 66c | 71.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 64.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 61.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 61.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 37c | 34.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 59c | 33.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9550…923ebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 32.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 47c | 30.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 44c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…9658backed Yes | 44c | 22.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.