Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16be5e21aed2a098b1352ab04f8e1948d7d3e5fc162fc8c397b39a51ba3c617a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 846.44$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 8c | 845.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.59 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 822.19$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 22c | 801.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.34 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 49c | 724.9$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.42 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 73c | 690.08$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 4c | 655.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 24c | 630.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 28c | 579.52$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.44 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 14c | 509.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 494.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 23c | 493.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.17 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 25c | 489.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.31 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 458.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 4c | 442.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 412.93$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.16 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 353$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.21 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 7c | 335$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.93 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 334.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 331.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.86 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9d37backed No | 75c | 306.28$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 272.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 19c | 270.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 27c | 264.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 73c | 262$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.73 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 259.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.26 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 45c | 221.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…0ab6backed Yes | 8c | 208.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 16c | 201.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 200.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 30c | 199.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 198.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 55c | 187.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 184.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Yes | 29c | 133.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 75c | 133.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…0227backed Yes | 12c | 130.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 129.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 29c | 128.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 34c | 125.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 24c | 125.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 125$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 71c | 122.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 46c | 115.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 114.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 112.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 18c | 112.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 107.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 104.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 103.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 25c | 101.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…0575backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 17c | 99.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 27c | 90.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 77c | 89.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 44c | 88.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 86.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 82.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 19c | 74.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 58c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 58c | 68.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 68.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 64.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 37c | 59.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 66c | 57.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 20c | 53.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8342backed Yes | 41c | 49.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 24c | 49.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 71c | 47.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 44.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 25c | 44.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37a…dc07backed Yes | 32c | 41.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…6ef2backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…34ebbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…3192backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.