Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c168e537fb6696e58a54b25cd10e22b5848d85efac7604663e38c2cb25e5895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 33c | 820.27$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.36 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 29c | 727.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 27c | 500.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 37c | 449.13$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 63c | 416.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 393.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 353$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 325$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 323.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 323.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 72c | 320.54$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 283.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 280.29$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 69c | 243.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 31c | 229.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 33c | 224.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 223.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 26c | 202.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 199.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 144.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 33c | 142.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 140.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 139.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 138.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…f82bbacked Yes | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 136.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 24c | 135.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 128.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 128.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 116.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…623abacked No | 77c | 104.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 38c | 100.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…6badbacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 24c | 99.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 28c | 97.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 25c | 92.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 37c | 81.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8342backed Yes | 23c | 78.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 72.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 72.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 27c | 70.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 36c | 67.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 66.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…928dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 78c | 56.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 54.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 68c | 53.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…1d7abacked No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 28c | 48.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb923…cc8ebacked No | 75c | 47.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 45.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 31c | 32.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…7267backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…fd43backed No | 71c | 30.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fc…b6f4backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9d37backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 72c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 64c | 16.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed No | 70c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…b639backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…bf86backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.