Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcfd3f6070062e45dece2bc70a55f00d31a5dd59143165056ee2201f574b9191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 27c | 807.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 2c | 552.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 14c | 499.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 6c | 489.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 445.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 32c | 435.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 353$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 333.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 302.12$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 215.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 32c | 212$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 12c | 209.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 203.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 198.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 165.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 17c | 165.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 28c | 155.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 154.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…2575backed Yes | 30c | 138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Yes | 30c | 132.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 120.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…8f33backed No | 68c | 118.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 29c | 115.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…42e4backed Yes | 14c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 110.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 110.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 103.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 34c | 102.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 99.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…d206backed Yes | 31c | 87.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 82.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 31c | 72.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 31c | 64.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea7…9facbacked No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…01a4backed No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…6badbacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 27c | 56.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 28c | 53.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 34c | 50.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…e846backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 29c | 48.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 38.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 68c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 67c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 30.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 30.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…9319backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…ac33backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…0205backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 70c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…9656backed No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.