Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6bba650e345fcf4ee644cc3e01b6a661d09f9a4f973663d35177c1c331e5659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 825$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 563.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 529.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 353$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 8c | 283.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 282.57$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 8c | 274$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 225.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 6c | 177.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 175.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 72c | 173.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…ecffbacked Yes | 10c | 154.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…a39fbacked Yes | 10c | 138.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 100.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 39c | 100.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 90.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 34c | 80.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 39c | 76.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 32c | 71.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 71c | 70.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…c1bbbacked No | 71c | 69.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 64c | 68.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes | 31c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 26c | 60.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 39c | 59.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 58.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed Yes | 28c | 45.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 37c | 39.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…0327backed Yes | 40c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 29c | 37.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 35.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 67c | 33.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 37c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a8…6da5backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…56e4backed No | 68c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.