College Football · resolved market
Oregon State vs. Appalachian State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9895be5251c19fafd1e67e27620c7b0c0b91809719be34a3d07ca1cb55e5d114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian Stateof Oregon State, Appalachian State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Appalachian State | 68c | 27,575$18,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,883.34 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Oregon State | 22c | 10,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Appalachian State | 78c | 9,694$7,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.28 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Appalachian State | 54c | 9,427$5,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,364.02 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Oregon State | 47c | 8,479$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oregon State | 24c | 7,479$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.09 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oregon State | 24c | 5,709$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Oregon State | 47c | 4,309$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.01 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Oregon State | 27c | 4,079$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.62 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oregon State | 34c | 3,443$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.91 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oregon State | 47c | 3,229$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.65 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Appalachian State | 53c | 3,063$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.61 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Appalachian State | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…7538backed Oregon State | 1c | 1,985$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oregon State | 45c | 1,977$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.64 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oregon State | 47c | 1,830$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.17 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon State | 31c | 1,722$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.53 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Appalachian State | 60c | 1,288$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.28 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Appalachian State | 53c | 1,234$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…7422backed Appalachian State | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon State | 48c | 1,031$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Appalachian State | 52c | 960$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Oregon State | 15c | 945.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Oregon State | 46c | 911.16$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Oregon State | 46c | 672$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Oregon State | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Oregon State | 46c | 600$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Oregon State | 47c | 566$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.02 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Appalachian State | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Oregon State | 40c | 540$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Oregon State | 45c | 536.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Oregon State | 22c | 503.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Appalachian State | 78c | 503.71$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Oregon State | 46c | 492.77$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.67 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…46e6backed Appalachian State | 53c | 490.57$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…a49ebacked Oregon State | 48c | 489.58$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Appalachian State | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Appalachian State | 53c | 328.75$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Appalachian State | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Oregon State | 46c | 300.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Appalachian State | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Appalachian State | 57c | 185$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed Appalachian State | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Appalachian State | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Oregon State | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Appalachian State | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Appalachian State | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…2bb3backed Appalachian State | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…8c3cbacked Appalachian State | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Appalachian State | 54c | 114$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oregon State | 41c | 103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…6bb0backed Appalachian State | 66c | 101.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Appalachian State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Oregon State | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Appalachian State | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Oregon State | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Appalachian State | 64c | 88.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Oregon State | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Appalachian State | 63c | 58.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Appalachian State | 75c | 58.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Oregon State | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Oregon State | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Oregon State | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Oregon State | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Oregon State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Appalachian State | 52c | 39.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Appalachian State | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Oregon State | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Appalachian State | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…15debacked Oregon State | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…2066backed Oregon State | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…b363backed Oregon State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon State vs. Appalachian Statethis page
- Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5)Appalachian State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.