Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989665f0c97a767156f1296c5b69ee6f6a6c08dbd9e66da449f8c3cef6f07730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 22c | 800$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 655.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 636.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 3c | 531.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 459.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 443.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 438.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 399.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 398.03$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 286.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 252.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 233.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 213.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 134.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 17c | 115.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 26c | 96.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 13c | 94.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 80.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71e…b57fbacked Yes | 21c | 78.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 73.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 29c | 71.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 63.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 61.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 55.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 24c | 51.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 75c | 41.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 74c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 36.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 36.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.