Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb24780dd71e6bbfcca59598ff4a869f20d987d220899c6fb471f73d062c5d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 1,393$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 1,071$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 832.92$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.4 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 449.5$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 16c | 448.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.01 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 430.4$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 62c | 337.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 335.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 15c | 296.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 288.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 251.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 52c | 225.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 73c | 221.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 15c | 199.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.08 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 10c | 174.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 172.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 164.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 6c | 158.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71e…b57fbacked Yes | 17c | 153.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 22c | 153.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 147.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 62c | 144.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 17c | 138.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 72c | 135.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 15c | 127.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 124.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 11c | 118.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 14c | 118.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 17c | 117.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 14c | 96.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 87.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 14c | 86.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 12c | 85.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 24c | 69.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 18c | 62.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 47c | 57.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 55.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb562…1bacbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed Yes | 70c | 44.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 30c | 43.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 41.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 77c | 40.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 23.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.