Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecfbcdbd4a154407f39010149c883299c95840bd35ae24faabe8a83057679ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,647$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 1,526$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,168$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,128$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 403.31$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 240$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 214$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 156.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 31c | 153.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 133.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5156…84c1backed Yes | 26c | 129.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 114.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 112.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 101.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 26c | 95.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 26c | 91.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 88.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 83.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 80.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 79.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 52.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 51.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 50.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 75c | 50.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 37.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed Yes | 28c | 36.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 72c | 34.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…5d52backed No | 75c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 75c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 74c | 21.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 19.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.