TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes40c822.93$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.511,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes72c686.31$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.1864460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xab36…38dabacked Yes79c598.22$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.33745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c485.45$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.954,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c465.94$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c449.5$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.85,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No34c440.9$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.194,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No29c437.53$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.062,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes48c435.85$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.212,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c318.45$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.191,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes30c308.23$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2745540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c292.65$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No21c281.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.444,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes74c278.82$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3823845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4e…9321backed Yes77c273.11$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No48c262.61$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.558922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No61c239.61$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No42c203.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.811,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes60c202.27$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.661,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No27c200.27$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8722550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7561…46a8backed Yes41c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No30c191.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c169.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.616,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes44c153.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.411,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes68c144.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6521633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes15c134.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c115.44$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.431,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes39c112.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.972,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked No74c109.14$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.34369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f44…ace3backed No10c103.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.86660.6%40 W · 26 L+11.9wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+52.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes58c102.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No50c102.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4727247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked No16c102.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.728829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes32c101.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.918235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5816937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.135429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes34c77.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.379040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes50c75.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6438655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c74.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes59c72.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.894650%23 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes69c71.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ec…e48cbacked No42c71.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.859921.2%21 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No64c70.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes24c68.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d4…7c98backed No57c66.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.442924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes74c64.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5243559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes69c59.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes44c56.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2932132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes47c54.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes25c53.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.494535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No19c52.96$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…e169backed No68c50.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.945228.8%15 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes72c50.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.082171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2df6…ef98backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.25151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1743139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes38c47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8214832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes50c46.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No64c46.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8368867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No64c45.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No25c41.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No64c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7926067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No58c39.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5453258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes72c35.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.410345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes61c32.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f70…891dbacked No72c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.526634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c89…e8e6backed No66c29.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes56c28.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes46c27.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No38c27.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9248261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked No75c26.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7914660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2013…7d68backed Yes79c25.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.757263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No56c24.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5828360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes48c24.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5223463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c23.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No64c23.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3250261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes50c22.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.329262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No66c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.631,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8310764.5%69 W · 38 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked No80c18.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.718962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No70c17.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3742…8e18backed No77c13.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.