Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb89620f94afae863e2eb5fc14b66004462c20b731244adc8d3c57b41cfbdd88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 37c | 1,127$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.91 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 614.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 595.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 520.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 424.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 346.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 11c | 294.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 244$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 77c | 218.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 212.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 183.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 180.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 156.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 13c | 150.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 116.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 110.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 67c | 105.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…00acbacked No | 80c | 100.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 99.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 37c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 36c | 85.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71e…b57fbacked Yes | 22c | 79.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 78.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 60.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 56.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 56.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 52.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 50.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 38.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 33.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 67c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 24.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3d7dbacked No | 79c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.