Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989d7a61cbe3df9b123db60323317a31b2cc0fa94a5bd7be97f9c7f6dd8cfedf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 814.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 608$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 494.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed Yes | 7c | 379.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 23c | 343.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 18c | 334.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 269.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 231.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 5c | 229.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 219.52$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 15c | 213.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 24c | 203.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 159.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 151.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 149.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 29c | 102.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 80c | 100.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 18c | 98.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 21c | 86.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 29c | 83.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 80c | 67.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 64.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 19c | 61.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 59.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 78c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…6479backed No | 76c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.