Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bad677e822adb3be9c39d2a7cc14948deebdeceb238115ae754c792d9984d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 3,453$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.14 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 27c | 2,062$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.22 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 1,962$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.65 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 50c | 951.78$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.6 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 40c | 856.11$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.54 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 64c | 640.1$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 25c | 631.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 24c | 627.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 510.56$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 504.19$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 476.47$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 457$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 447.39$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 54c | 433.71$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 409.59$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 362.06$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 35c | 350$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 326.31$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 323.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 65c | 322.08$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 321.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 55c | 310$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 63c | 286.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 273$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 251$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 71c | 236.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 25c | 223.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 220.58$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 68c | 212.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 25c | 210.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 76c | 210.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 209$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 29c | 208.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 32c | 202.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 201.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 22c | 201.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 27c | 186.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 184.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 171.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 163.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 35c | 156.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 28c | 154.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 29c | 152.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 149.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 69c | 148.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 148.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 146.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 141.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 70c | 132.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 49c | 129.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 122.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed No | 65c | 119.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 76c | 107.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 107.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 104.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 25c | 103.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 30c | 103.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 77c | 102.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 97.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 33c | 97.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 93.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 74c | 88.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 83.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 82.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 77.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 59c | 76.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 67c | 72.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 72.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 28c | 71.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 65.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca8…0bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 65.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 67c | 63.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 61.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 60.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked No | 70c | 58.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 58.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 57.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 26c | 55.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 55.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 54.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 54.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 51.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 27c | 50.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 49.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 49.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 76c | 49.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.