Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70a1d9a125b00ee96a95cfaecd18142e83a20b254d182d838fdb2d49004b08a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 40c | 718.62$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 20c | 675.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 50c | 635.24$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 39c | 545.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.34 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 502.43$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 46c | 439.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 352.04$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 329.95$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 11c | 327.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 314$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 270.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 261.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 259$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 253.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 218.9$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 203.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 6c | 201.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.5 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 32c | 188.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 186$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.74 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 29c | 179.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 166.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 35c | 164.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 23c | 155.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 149.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 55c | 140.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 53c | 128.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 125$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 76c | 123.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 118.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 112.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 36c | 112.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 107.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 66c | 100.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 92.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 83.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 71c | 82.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 82.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 81.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 30c | 78.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 31c | 74.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 33c | 72.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 71.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 66.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 64.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 53c | 64.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 62.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 55.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 53.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 42c | 51.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 45.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 44.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 66c | 44.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 43.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 43.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…5301backed No | 67c | 42.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 42.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 41.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 40.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…2106backed Yes | 34c | 40.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 38.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 37.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 37.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 36.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 34.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 34.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed Yes | 34c | 33.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked Yes | 34c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 66c | 29.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 67c | 29.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 29.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 65c | 26.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 74c | 25.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 67c | 24.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed No | 67c | 20.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 53c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.