Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bd252daf77fa49f15743700bbd528cab9ebd07c41e65b72771cb02ef48284e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x043e…1e20backed Yes | 47c | 858.49$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 35c | 667.15$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.75 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 19c | 521.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 496.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 43c | 494.06$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 390$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 371.39$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 23c | 334.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 333.41$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 79c | 282.24$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 27c | 220.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 32c | 185.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 185.75$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 173.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 169.72$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 63c | 157.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc20…5374backed No | 64c | 136.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 75c | 123.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…fc2fbacked Yes | 40c | 117.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 115.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 112.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 23c | 110.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 15c | 101.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 32c | 98.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 15c | 92.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 23c | 88.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 87.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 86.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 84.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 79.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 78.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 75.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Yes | 28c | 70.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 60.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 34c | 56.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 55.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 51.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 73c | 50.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…4f61backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 35c | 49.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 47.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 41c | 46.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 45.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 43.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…15b7backed No | 72c | 41.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 26c | 39.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Yes | 38c | 38.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 37.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 35.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 64c | 27.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 67c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…1076backed No | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 80c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.