Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b257dc05c58c6bd91a72051a3da312f22956f12821f95e395e45fc5bdca094c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 358.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 13c | 333.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 332.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 30c | 263.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 252.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…f168backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 211.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 27c | 176.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 169.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 163.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 157.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 30c | 155.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 147.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 132.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 25c | 107.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 100.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…ce86backed No | 76c | 97.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 31c | 97.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 69c | 86.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 83.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 38c | 79.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 30c | 77.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 73.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 71c | 73.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 70.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 72c | 68.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 66.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 76c | 62.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 31c | 53.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 51.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 50.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 34c | 50.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 73c | 47.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Yes | 32c | 40.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 66c | 37.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…e5f7backed Yes | 32c | 36.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 32.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4597backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 70c | 30.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 29.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 25.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…1076backed No | 80c | 24.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f035backed No | 72c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.