Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03d574fd6a42ad0cfc0d1f0f02219250c27b4a785cde04ea2761b3404477992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 37c | 378$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.19 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 333.31$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 42c | 242.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 228.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 48c | 212.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 210.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 54c | 193.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 169.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 33c | 150.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 146.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 137.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 132.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 131.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 128.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 125.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 123$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 121.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 39c | 120.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 117.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 107.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 74c | 101.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed Yes | 34c | 90.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 44c | 88.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 83.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 27c | 83.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 81.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 52c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 54c | 69.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 62.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 59.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…e5f7backed Yes | 44c | 56.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 40c | 51.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 29c | 51.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4597backed Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 63c | 47.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 46.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…ed79backed Yes | 54c | 46.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 49c | 42.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 42.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 39.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 45c | 39.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 45c | 39.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 45c | 38.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…fc2fbacked Yes | 44c | 36.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 35c | 34.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 33.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 50c | 33.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…c699backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 25.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…4f61backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 64c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…63d7backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 70c | 22.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 22.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 48c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 65c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.