Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990130a798c5eb46ef73d67758fe5b51099e32a49f72283b9ba5f87e5cf4721a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 515.4$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.56 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 365.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 352.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 301.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 231.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 221.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 80c | 214$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 201.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 14c | 158.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes | 9c | 144.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 122.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 21c | 114.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 114.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 12c | 95.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 75c | 91.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 11c | 88.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 85.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 74.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 72.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 70c | 70.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 19c | 63.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 57c | 62.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 78c | 58.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 58.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 51.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 50.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 48.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 43.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 39.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 35.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 32.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 35c | 31.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…71d3backed No | 68c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 56c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 63c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.