Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75fee365bd93180b2bd7dc6af40bcd6452a7762bf3f2910afacadf4c2dad57fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,225$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.53 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 354.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 352.97$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 52c | 263.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 6c | 244.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 45c | 239.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 225.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 221.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 219.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 212.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 51c | 200.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 47c | 188.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 184.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 43c | 172.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 142$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 140.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 136.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 42c | 121.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 121.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 117.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 114.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 110.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 20c | 90.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 89.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 13c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 14c | 84.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 54c | 74.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 56c | 71.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 46c | 68.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 67.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 66.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 65.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 41c | 63.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 49.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 44c | 49.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 49.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 48.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 62c | 45.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 44.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 41c | 42.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 57c | 41.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 41.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 39.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 38.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 35.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…b42abacked Yes | 37c | 31.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…56ebbacked Yes | 77c | 31.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 30.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 65c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 65c | 20.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed Yes | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 73c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.