Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Luciano Darderi vs Eliot Spizzirri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990814e802e95732af54394d99d1b5ee0ea99fa4a9a76c92f1af818e9f583005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Darderi, Spizzirri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1388…339abacked Darderi | 59c | 5,500$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.6 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spizzirri | 40c | 4,705$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.83 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Spizzirri | 40c | 3,249$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.66 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Spizzirri | 42c | 2,621$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.37 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Spizzirri | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Darderi | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Darderi | 60c | 2,105$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.05 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Spizzirri | 41c | 2,017$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.1 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spizzirri | 42c | 1,348$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.62 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spizzirri | 41c | 1,280$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Darderi | 80c | 1,010$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2d…58b9backed Darderi | 60c | 916.67$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Spizzirri | 25c | 628.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Spizzirri | 25c | 568.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Darderi | 75c | 515.36$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Darderi | 59c | 508.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.43 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Darderi | 60c | 376.25$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Spizzirri | 38c | 356.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Darderi | 59c | 339.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Darderi | 59c | 336.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Darderi | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Darderi | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Spizzirri | 19c | 270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Spizzirri | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Spizzirri | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Spizzirri | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Darderi | 60c | 203.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Darderi | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Darderi | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Darderi | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Spizzirri | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Spizzirri | 23c | 143.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Darderi | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Darderi | 80c | 125.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Spizzirri | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Darderi | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Spizzirri | 13c | 81.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Darderi | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…4a52backed Spizzirri | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Darderi | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Spizzirri | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0ccabacked Darderi | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Darderi | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…3699backed Darderi | 60c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…cd00backed Darderi | 60c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…f688backed Darderi | 60c | 23.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…429dbacked Darderi | 60c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…e331backed Darderi | 60c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d88…81a0backed Darderi | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Darderi | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.