MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool D: Nicaragua vs. Venezuela
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x991e3280327c9b4cf10965168aae2fa9a48688a27aaecd4c93015f5f63e0cac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Venezuelaof Nicaragua, Venezuela
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,399 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Nicaragua | 7c | 22,508$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.66 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Nicaragua | 1c | 7,460$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nicaragua | 0c | 5,913$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8f7bbacked Nicaragua | 0c | 5,268$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Nicaragua | 3c | 4,941$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nicaragua | 2c | 4,365$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Nicaragua | 7c | 3,568$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Nicaragua | 6c | 2,820$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Nicaragua | 2c | 2,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Nicaragua | 7c | 1,748$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Nicaragua | 5c | 1,610$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Nicaragua | 8c | 1,196$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nicaragua | 7c | 1,135$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Nicaragua | 10c | 1,110$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nicaragua | 8c | 1,105$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Nicaragua | 5c | 802.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…49acbacked Nicaragua | 6c | 678.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Nicaragua | 7c | 628.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nicaragua | 8c | 508.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Nicaragua | 5c | 499.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nicaragua | 6c | 333.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,456 | 42.7%622 W · 834 L | -39.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Nicaragua | 7c | 329$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Nicaragua | 7c | 328.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nicaragua | 8c | 328.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Nicaragua | 9c | 324.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nicaragua | 5c | 291.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Nicaragua | 7c | 284.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Nicaragua | 9c | 284$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…7c6ebacked Nicaragua | 18c | 274.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nicaragua | 6c | 258.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Nicaragua | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Nicaragua | 8c | 202.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Nicaragua | 11c | 200.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nicaragua | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nicaragua | 7c | 199.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nicaragua | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Nicaragua | 8c | 185.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Nicaragua | 7c | 152.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Nicaragua | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Venezuela | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +86%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.