TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes58c577.41$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No18c287.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes63c286.02$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1438138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes67c219.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c196.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes57c186.75$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c171$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes33c140.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.941,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes52c129.81$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.815151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes53c129.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No34c113.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.911,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No38c102.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.261,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No37c97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.115,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes52c90.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.394,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes76c89.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c88.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No42c88.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.142,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes55c86.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9622746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No45c82.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.381,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No66c76.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No41c70.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c69.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No44c68.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.739536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c61.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c60.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.072,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No25c59.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No21c58.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No45c57.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.692,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes44c54.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4112832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes61c54.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.391,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.548149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3212735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed Yes75c48.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.272653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4525038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No44c43.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9946667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No27c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes69c40.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.765024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.864960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes76c39.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.644254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes72c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7918337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes53c36.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No48c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No56c35.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No29c35.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.344,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1417644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes43c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.055536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No37c34.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No33c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes64c32.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No49c32.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa9da…aa1cbacked No73c31.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.728649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No42c28.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes52c27.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.295,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c26.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.962,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No38c26.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes56c26.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.624247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8778…743abacked Yes58c26.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d65…2d2bbacked No60c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc5…d713backed Yes80c25.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.131127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No43c25.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes44c24.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb619…91e2backed No47c24.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.364746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No42c24.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1825258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes72c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No67c22.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9926861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No67c21.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4179255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes74c21.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4740871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c19.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes65c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.343842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes67c16.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.324060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf651…86b1backed Yes66c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.446157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.