Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda05c04b641688a23289db2e292f80b21d4c0e238798aa2a8f2bcd652c3ed91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 25c | 607.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 385$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 31c | 281.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 258.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 223.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 18c | 211.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 153.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 19c | 152.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 29c | 143.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 115.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 102.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 68c | 100.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 98.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 83.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 82.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 68.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 64.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 59.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 57.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 56.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 24c | 50.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 22c | 48.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 37.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 35.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…e7b2backed Yes | 30c | 34.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 68c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 69c | 26.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d5c6backed No | 75c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…7b9abacked No | 76c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed No | 74c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.