F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996a32cbe570b8676754e1d9b2c0dd8aa03f364113d42b1171a18dbe8726b1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 28c | 2,851$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.83 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Yes | 71c | 1,499$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…cbdfbacked Yes | 72c | 1,392$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 68c | 1,153$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.83 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…99acbacked Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 59c | 605$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 73c | 549$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.09 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 27c | 431.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 72c | 380$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 22c | 270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 42c | 261$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 29c | 233.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…8b1abacked No | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 32c | 119.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 39c | 90.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…7c86backed No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9c…ac70backed Yes | 70c | 71.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…e06bbacked Yes | 72c | 70.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b1b2backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…9027backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 59c | 65.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…3d39backed Yes | 71c | 60.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…98c9backed Yes | 71c | 54.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…9574backed Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…09e4backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…819dbacked Yes | 74c | 26.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race?this page
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.