TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Enterprise Esports, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85fb…89babacked Team Liquid64c6,000$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.997443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Liquid55c6,000$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.9832245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Enterprise Esports43c4,647$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.8419751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Enterprise Esports45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9526738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Team Liquid79c3,622$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.12556%14 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid78c3,580$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.1540945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid55c2,824$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.9112951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Enterprise Esports41c1,694$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Enterprise Esports21c1,537$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7750944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Enterprise Esports21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31514750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Enterprise Esports45c1,418$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.2878562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Team Liquid68c1,308$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.3528955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Enterprise Esports21c1,244$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Enterprise Esports45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5408640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Enterprise Esports15c1,156$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7654342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Enterprise Esports21c1,102$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Liquid55c1,055$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.2324946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb1…aebabacked Enterprise Esports21c1,048$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.764445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Enterprise Esports32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Enterprise Esports45c960.6$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.278144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Enterprise Esports19c926.32$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1762445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Liquid72c908.46$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2638950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed Enterprise Esports45c815.73$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.086443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid70c802.71$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.5268458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Enterprise Esports45c670$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.55052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Enterprise Esports20c540$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10836145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Enterprise Esports24c461.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.283627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Enterprise Esports16c379.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Team Liquid55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.649737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid62c348.68$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4832462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Enterprise Esports45c325.48$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4756551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Team Liquid55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13527145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed Enterprise Esports45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Team Liquid55c280$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.23363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Enterprise Esports29c268$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0423732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Team Liquid56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.083647.2%17 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb961…5554backed Enterprise Esports19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed Enterprise Esports38c249.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Team Liquid56c242.87$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8610846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dae…72febacked Team Liquid55c232.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.471968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8384…3953backed Team Liquid66c232.05$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Enterprise Esports45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005050%25 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid62c219.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1824250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Enterprise Esports46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed Enterprise Esports46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Team Liquid55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Enterprise Esports45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid67c199.08$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5760154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbb…a2cdbacked Team Liquid55c180.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.154942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e7…6036backed Team Liquid55c177.81$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.01560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a18…dac8backed Enterprise Esports39c176.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.88055%44 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5b…315ebacked Enterprise Esports46c174.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.321729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1354…b7b3backed Enterprise Esports21c174.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.642412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked Team Liquid79c168.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.413161.3%19 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Enterprise Esports25c163.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4770043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…d31dbacked Enterprise Esports24c157.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.471435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Enterprise Esports34c157$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.38850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…f368backed Enterprise Esports40c145.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.14887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Enterprise Esports25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Enterprise Esports33c139.51$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed Team Liquid65c136.08$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.874434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid75c133.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.153355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Team Liquid56c133.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.672860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Enterprise Esports30c127.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9316420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x628f…b212backed Team Liquid55c124.1$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.842065%13 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Enterprise Esports22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Team Liquid68c117.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.654163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x233a…ae12backed Team Liquid55c105.45$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Enterprise Esports27c103.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7874642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd415…b48ebacked Enterprise Esports32c103$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Team Liquid55c102.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3828252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed Team Liquid55c101.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7214959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed Enterprise Esports20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209139.6%36 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Team Liquid69c98.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3416963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b28…bf9fbacked Team Liquid58c96.82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Enterprise Esports24c94.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1577744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Enterprise Esports25c94.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9afdbacked Enterprise Esports19c94.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.941030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Enterprise Esports46c91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8611442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b7…c8a8backed Team Liquid55c87.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.372360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Liquid64c81.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2239646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Team Liquid61c80.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4304…4831backed Enterprise Esports29c78.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…e825backed Team Liquid53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.258100%8 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked Team Liquid55c74.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.55966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Enterprise Esports26c74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.465937.3%22 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Enterprise Esports38c71.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2632157.6%185 W · 136 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Enterprise Esports28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Enterprise Esports25c67.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.066038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Enterprise Esports31c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1881134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Enterprise Esports30c65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322440.2%90 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…1d3cbacked Team Liquid63c64.72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.98862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x085f…7a21backed Enterprise Esports45c64.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.865846.6%27 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed Enterprise Esports46c63.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2911738.5%45 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Team Liquid55c63.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6413456.7%76 W · 58 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Enterprise Esports34c62.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3517557.1%100 W · 75 L+15.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Enterprise Esports32c62.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Enterprise Esports44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Enterprise Esports20c55.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.233346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed Team Liquid55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5518465.2%120 W · 64 L-0.6wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.