Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99adb0beb32d03a491295d92e7d40b91a8b9a424a6a3c25f7556ef18d7d72bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 68c | 5,119$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.61 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Yes | 5c | 1,723$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 34c | 1,472$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 39c | 1,397$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.04 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,281$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.82 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 1,272$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.6 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 67c | 1,092$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.68 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 71c | 892.84$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.92 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 71c | 532.96$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 44c | 452.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.27 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 28c | 428.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 66c | 335.1$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 70c | 307.69$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 228.76$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 220.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 44c | 179.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Yes | 32c | 156.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…576ebacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 138$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 32c | 136.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 58c | 133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 136 | 58.8%80 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 75c | 132.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 122$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 68c | 79.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…b2c7backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 61c | 64.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 63.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…5030backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 78c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…cf3bbacked No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.