Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99b6ecc4352e2e23cfc6b61485bc3d2afeb4e4841c9ceea530b928d202d895af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 33c | 8,741$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,874.42 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 21c | 6,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 64c | 5,190$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.24 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 66c | 2,890$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.66 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 1c | 1,783$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.98 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 1,058$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 79c | 949$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 857.39$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 73c | 599.96$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.97 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 79c | 553.55$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Yes | 27c | 307.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 38c | 282.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.16 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 60c | 225$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 38c | 199.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 45c | 151.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 34c | 129.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 64c | 128.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 79c | 106.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 22c | 99.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Yes | 39c | 99.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 62c | 98.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Yes | 21c | 98.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…04ecbacked Yes | 22c | 89.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 55c | 84.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 62c | 79.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Yes | 59c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 22c | 63.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 49.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 67c | 45.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 73c | 42.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 65c | 29.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 77c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-06?Yes won
- Will Páfos FC win on 2026-08-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.