Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e54bb0a18b36a77223727f9c4ef5d0db2d34cae5878e25f1a18cf7ce7efe10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 8c | 11,178$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.1 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 6,202$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.86 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Under | 72c | 4,833$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 2,248$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 80c | 1,903$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.92 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 9c | 1,740$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 922.57$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.74 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Over | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 10c | 560.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Under | 65c | 440.35$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 76c | 393.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 8c | 291$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 253.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 13c | 210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 9c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd806…5131backed Over | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 9c | 143.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +7.1wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +8.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…9be0backed Under | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 65c | 37.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Under | 77c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.