Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb44c50c3d8c63e72ac5654a2b4f553ca0a83efc7df919288432f9a65d833e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 80c | 11,940$9,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,552.33 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 5,043$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.13 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 2,185$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.98 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Over | 59c | 1,707$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 20c | 1,521$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.84 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 55c | 985.55$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 25c | 847.11$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.11 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 358.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 60c | 332.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 61c | 327.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 20c | 276$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.74 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Under | 43c | 234.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 20c | 225.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 37c | 215.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 22c | 212.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.65 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 176.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 47c | 175.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 64c | 170.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 20c | 159.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 36c | 150.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 40c | 147.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd806…5131backed Over | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 21c | 108.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…767dbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 71c | 94.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 52c | 79.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 31c | 74.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Under | 58c | 61.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 55.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 68c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…95c8backed Over | 73c | 37.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed Over | 44c | 34.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 58c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 33.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 49c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Over | 54c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…f43dbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 47c | 21.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…f563backed Over | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…f5c0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Tōkyō Verdy O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.