Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99f10c2de6e9afd7f093c604cfbfd35884a6c67537ec882b0f80ec38240458e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 7,743$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.04 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 4,352$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.47 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…461abacked Over | 43c | 3,998$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 76c | 3,624$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 3,311$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.3 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 41c | 2,964$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.24 | 258 | 36%93 W · 165 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 2,239$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.56 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 1,316$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.24 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 1,273$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Under | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 33c | 1,112$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.42 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 74c | 964.86$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.86 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 409 | 53.3%218 W · 191 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 33c | 565.09$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 67c | 544.48$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 69c | 516.76$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…8f36backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…9a01backed Over | 42c | 470.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 58c | 405.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…d99abacked Over | 41c | 252$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…07d5backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 23c | 206.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 59c | 170.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…b3bfbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…c373backed Over | 41c | 108$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…a53bbacked Over | 42c | 99.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Under | 59c | 97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 58c | 95.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…704fbacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…02d6backed Over | 40c | 88.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…07d0backed Over | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Under | 59c | 84.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…9d72backed Under | 79c | 71.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…9546backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…8527backed Under | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 60.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 41c | 59.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 193 | 57.5%111 W · 82 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 62c | 46.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 39c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 39c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…8f07backed Over | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…0364backed Over | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…2971backed Under | 61c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d655backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 42c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 39c | 26.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.