Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963538edba1acba703c2e905db70088527bc5cb033a390d15e348012e132b948

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $93,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $112,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	28c	10,844$3,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,048.93	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	24c	7,784$1,890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,890.08	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over	59c	6,000$3,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,459.86	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b7…00a0backed Over	59c	4,040$2,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,656.4	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over	40c	3,500$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,099.95	258	36%93 W · 165 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Over	60c	2,005$1,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$802	138	34.1%47 W · 91 L	-11.9wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Under	5c	1,800$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Under	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	196	52%102 W · 94 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Under	69c	1,530$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.6	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	15c	1,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	30c	1,230$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.52	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Under	41c	1,100$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	15c	1,063$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.21	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Over	60c	991$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.4	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under	15c	734.24$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.14	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under	16c	714.05$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.32	131	32.1%42 W · 89 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	49c	642.5$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.04	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over	56c	600$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267	26	76.9%20 W · 6 L	+5.8wins	+0.22per pick	55cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Under	55c	546.76$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.72	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Under	49c	533.78$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.39	62	62.9%39 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	16c	475.99$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.28	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	15c	417.76$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	33c	325.2$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.48	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Over	62c	320$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.6	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Over	58c	305.26$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.26	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed Under	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over	47c	250$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.5	143	42.7%61 W · 82 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab9b…d007backed Over	63c	241.04$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.94	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.8wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	15c	235$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	12c	182.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	35c	170$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.47	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…a925backed Over	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	102	42.2%43 W · 59 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over	65c	154$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Under	56c	150.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.55	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9527…928dbacked Over	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	15c	133$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over	70c	130$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.1	105	69.5%73 W · 32 L	+10.3wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	51c	127.52$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.52	556	54.9%305 W · 251 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Under	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d7…a36dbacked Under	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-10.7wins	-0.49per pick	53cpaid	-92.5%equal weight	25-0.23 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	57c	108.77$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.77	180	59.4%107 W · 73 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca51…fca8backed Over	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	59c	90$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.9	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Under	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	114	20.2%23 W · 91 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	84.3$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.89	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over	30c	83.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.33	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e45…efefbacked Over	73c	80$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	73cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df8…475cbacked Over	58c	80$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.45	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.3wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb063…c9d1backed Over	64c	78.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	35c	71.43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.43	192	59.4%114 W · 78 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Under	18c	62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	139	41%57 W · 82 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under	42c	60$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	58.81$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over	46c	57.33$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.96	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-6.1wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa74…a8babacked Over	49c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.9	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+78.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	58c	52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.84	191	33%63 W · 128 L	-13.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd18d…bc16backed Over	59c	50.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.31per pick	57cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9784…e452backed Over	37c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332d…7b0ebacked Under	56c	48.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…83dbbacked Over	57c	41.19$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.81	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+76.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…4b39backed Over	58c	41.17$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2567…216dbacked Over	57c	39.18$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.9	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd070…455fbacked Over	57c	37.86$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2285…4bf1backed Over	67c	37.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…349cbacked Over	44c	34.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…dacbbacked Over	59c	34.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.07	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Over	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca15…0d5ebacked Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	297	51.9%154 W · 143 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…0ea4backed Under	48c	26.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1468…2ca9backed Over	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	81	22.2%18 W · 63 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Under	77c	24.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	73c	22.71$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	252	56%141 W · 111 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over	53c	21.89$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Under	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	198	34.8%69 W · 129 L	-17.3wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03c4…b832backed Under	72c	16.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	69c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.7	412	60.2%248 W · 164 L	+22.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5this page
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event