NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99f9836273c0339c8f45a20dc5ffcdb5cfc4a30969767b6d154a7bf02e5488a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 60c | 3,526$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 36c | 3,130$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Celtics | 41c | 3,035$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.84 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Pacers | 64c | 1,829$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.73 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 39c | 1,658$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.81 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…8645backed Pacers | 60c | 1,617$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.08 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -57%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Celtics | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…86e0backed Celtics | 40c | 1,167$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…2e52backed Pacers | 60c | 1,100$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…baa6backed Celtics | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pacers | 59c | 1,003$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Celtics | 41c | 450$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Celtics | 8c | 181.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Celtics | 39c | 174.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Celtics | 39c | 161.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Pacers | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 38c | 100.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Pacers | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Pacers | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…47bcbacked Celtics | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6414backed Celtics | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Celtics | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Celtics | 47c | 43.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Celtics | 40c | 34.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Pacers | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacers | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Pacers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Pacers | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked Celtics | 41c | 25.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Celtics | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Pacers | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pacers | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Pacers | 61c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- Celtics vs. PacersPacers won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.