NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f4517a3c5f70b28c8f59d2c787f6e93959673b94b9b0401e257c4627cb086c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 5,088$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 5,074$2,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.28 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Under | 45c | 3,500$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Over | 55c | 3,124$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.85 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 2,016$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,566$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Under | 48c | 1,337$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.24 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 917.09$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.34 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 759.16$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 43c | 609$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.93 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 55c | 433.38$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.23 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 358.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 57c | 295.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 46c | 174.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Over | 13c | 164.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 41c | 152.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked Over | 63c | 92.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…9b1bbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 41c | 65.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 64.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 74c | 57.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Under | 46c | 28.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Under | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5this page
- Celtics vs. PacersPacers won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.