NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc37a92b8a0512eaf5fd9fbcf7e028e6387480bfbb7878d79cc13a3151cfb3965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 57c | 2,806$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Pacers | 58c | 1,205$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Celtics | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Pacers | 57c | 631.19$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.41 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Pacers | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Pacers | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 43c | 238.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Celtics | 42c | 120.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…8b0ebacked Pacers | 60c | 116.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 73c | 62.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Celtics | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Celtics | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Celtics | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Pacers | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Celtics | 47c | 47.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Pacers | 56c | 42.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…4eaabacked Celtics | 45c | 30.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…8b55backed Celtics | 46c | 30.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…ab5bbacked Celtics | 45c | 30.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa543…9b8abacked Celtics | 44c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28e…4a61backed Pacers | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 43c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Celtics | 45c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -11.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3133…6ecbbacked Pacers | 57c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…29fbbacked Celtics | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…3b49backed Pacers | 57c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c0…70edbacked Pacers | 57c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pacers | 52c | 19.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf46…c783backed Pacers | 57c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…bbf5backed Pacers | 57c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- Celtics vs. PacersPacers won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.