WNBA · resolved market
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a08a334f2bae725a6c09e5a4e9083954741423ab98047b731df08b529fc0277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 1,988$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.94 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 44c | 1,810$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.41 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 1,591$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.73 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 1,251$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.89 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 968.36$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.88 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 80c | 292.97$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 209.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 65c | 166.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 40c | 161.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 125.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 16c | 120.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Over | 17c | 116.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 52c | 112.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 73c | 96.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 31c | 85.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 84.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 67c | 65.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 58.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…5ae6backed Under | 69c | 58.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 43c | 37.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 72c | 31.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 69c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5this page
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.