MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1656d1776d4d79508d81671798768bd3e1aebc8eee5b01bfac6f4680bdef18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,079$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…c324backed Over | 74c | 1,548$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,144$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 27c | 790$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 54c | 249.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 34c | 177$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 66c | 102.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 67c | 83.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 72.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 35c | 69.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 18c | 68.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 77c | 65.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…1ed0backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 27.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.