MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306241cd869ec9ca6c64d6854be9c92ad66322d10293a00b1417c33a762564a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 5,964$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 4,764$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 852.89$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.06 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 647.86$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.6 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 638.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 403$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Baltimore Orioles | 5c | 224.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 196.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 141.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Detroit Tigers | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 127.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 123.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 120.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 113.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 54.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 51.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 43.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 38.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 37.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 36.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 35.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 26.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 18.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.