MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a209baae9393f27b9e63fabc82c2c174a4ea0021f0ce2b3bf2cf6de7530ece4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 36c | 2,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.99 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,609$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 1,244$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 64c | 987.54$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.51 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 64c | 552.87$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 550$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 36c | 534$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 63c | 481.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 466.6$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 63c | 417$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 65c | 376.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 35c | 315$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 209.14$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 34c | 192.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 35c | 120.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 80.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 34c | 66.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 22c | 47.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 24.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 63c | 18.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 64c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.